Germany Election 2025: Conservatives Win, AfD Surges in Exit Polls

The CDU/CSU alliance in Germany, led by Friedrich Merz, has won the 2025 federal election based on exit polls, marking a significant political turnaround. At the same time, the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) has made unprecedented gains, mutating into the second-largest party. This election will have important spillover effects, not only for Germany, but for Europe, the United States, and the global political context.

In this article we look at how Germany’s electoral system works, which political parties ran in the election and how the results of exit polls stack up against what the final outcome looks like. We will also look at how reliable are exit polls, what this election means for Europe and the world, and how the results in 2025 compare to the last election in 2021. The result of this election could transform Germany’s domestic and international policies, so making sense of its broader importance is vital.

Germany follows a mixed-member proportional representation system, ensuring both direct and proportional representation. Each voter casts two votes:The first vote (Erststimme): Elects a direct representative from their local district to the Bundestag.

The second vote (Zweitstimme): Determines the overall distribution of seats among parties based on proportional representation.

For a party to enter parliament, it must either:Win at least 5% of the national vote, or

Secure at least three direct constituency seats.

This system helps prevent extreme shifts in power while ensuring fair representation of smaller parties.

This election was contested primarily by multiple big political parties, each with its own policies and vision for Germany:CDU/CSU (Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union): A center-right alliance, led by Friedrich Merz and promoting economic growth, lowering immigration, and a strong representation in the EU.

• SPD (Social Democratic Party): A center-left political party in Germany headed by Chancellor Olaf Scholz, emphasized a candidate on social welfare, labor rights, and green policies.
• AfD (Alternative für Deutschland): A far-right nationalist camp that surged previously on an anti-immigration and eurosketptic platform.
• The Greens: An environmentalist party that advocates for climate policies and social justice
• FDP (Freie Demokratische Partei): A liberal party with a pro-business platform in favor of tax cuts, and digital innovation.
• Die Linke (The Left): A socialist party, calling for wealth redistribution and stronger labour rights.

Exit polls can be a good bellwether of election outcomes, but they’re not inerrant. Some of the factors which affect their reliability are:Sampling Bias: If any group is under represented its results may not mirror the actual output.

• Postal votes: Mail-in ballots, which are counted later, can affect the final results by small margins.
• Voter honesty: With certain parties being very controversial, some members may not admit their real vote choice.
• In previous elections, German exit polls have typically proved reliable, but some variation is always possible.

According to exit polls, the 2025 election results are as follows:

• CDU/CSU (Friedrich Merz): 29%
• AfD (Far-right nationalist party): 20%
• SPD (Olaf Scholz’s party): 16%
• Greens: 13%
• FDP: 8%
• The Left: 4%

The 2025 election saw a rise in conservative and far-right support, with CDU/CSU reclaiming power and AfD doubling its previous vote share. Meanwhile, the SPD suffered a significant decline, reflecting voter dissatisfaction with the current government.

Germany is Europe’s largest economy and a global political powerhouse. The outcome of this election will shape policies affecting Europe, the United States, and international relations.

Germany plays a central role in the EU. A conservative-led government could:

• Push for stricter financial policies, affecting weaker European economies.
• Strengthen border control policies and limit immigration.
• Influence EU’s stance on Russia and China.

Germany is a key NATO ally and economic partner for the U.S. Under Merz’s leadership, relations may:

• Shift toward stronger transatlantic cooperation.
• See tighter trade regulations affecting businesses.
• Influence global security policies, especially regarding Russia and Ukraine.

As the fourth-largest economy in the world, Germany’s policies will impact:

• Stock markets and trade agreements.
• Energy prices, particularly with a potential shift in Russian relations.
• Tech and automobile industries, given Germany’s role in global manufacturing.

The rise of AfD signals a growing nationalist trend, which could influence:

• Other European far-right parties, potentially leading to increased nationalism across the EU.
• Germany’s stance on refugees and global humanitarian policies.

Germany’s 2025 election was a historic one: Friedrich Merz’s Christian Union (CDU/CSU) featched a big victory, the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) made historic gains. SPD faces extinction in Germany which means it signals electoral disccontent which leads to different politics and policies.

This election could shape Germany’s economic policies, the E.U.’s future, global security and relations with the U.S.. With nationalism rising and economic tailwinds fading, Germany’s leadership will be key to the stability of Europe and its relations with the world.

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